I Think Punditry Serves No Purpose.

People Gravitate Toward Information That Implies A Happier Outlook For Them.

The Thing That People Associate With Expertise, Authoritativeness, Kind Of With A Capital 'a,' Don't Correlate Very Well With Who's Actually Good At Making Predictions.

There's Always The Risk That There Are Unknown Unknowns.

A Lot Of Things Can't Be Modeled Very Well.

Not Only Does Political Coverage Often Lose The Signal—it Frequently Accentuates The Noise.